Venkat's Weblog

Fund Flow!

You know, I have always been surprised at this concept of 'Brain Drain' that the cream of the layer are working for 'foreign' nations and not for the motherland (but ofcourse the scenario is reversing now!). But the 'surprise' element is due to fact, that these people who find work and settle abroad do infact contribute to the development of the economy through fund flows, in the form of goods, foreign exchange and phone calls!

Well as if to confirm my thoughts, a recent study evealed that in the year 2005 the immigrants world wide sent around $230 billion home and of that $167 billlion wen to the developing countries, this amount actually exceeds the GDP of the country of Siapore. These Fund Flows are int he form of Direct flow of goods, travels (foreign exchanges again) phone calls and other form of exhcnages. Another piece of news is that Expatriates are also a major investors in venture capital firms and private investors in their homeland....hey everybody does contribute to their motherland whether in an active or passive way!

Scary Stock Story

I know this sounds off beat. But weird things happen on a Full moon day not only in the movies but also in the 'Stock Market' Well if you are raising your eyebrows and are frowning ( well be informed that I was not watching exorsist while typing !). Research done on the stock markets of the G7 countries do really show a very eerie corrleations!

Well the story goes like this According to a research done by Ilia D. Dicler of the University of Michigan and Trody. D. Joes of Buffalo give the following results" Review done on 25 stock exchanges over the past 30 years show a strong relation between lunar cycles and stock prices (remember this was done on the G-7 Nations ). 'Annualised daily mean daily retrns are higher around the new moon than on the full moon' ". Well all those heavy investors in the stock market beware of this Lunancy!

Market Watch-U.S

Bernanke in his 'hot seat' seems to be in total control, well he ought to be, because every single word he utters would result in a severe change in the 'market' situation. As of now the Fed have taken the stand that their policy on the rates would continue and seeing that the inflation risk 'remains', the Fed seems to have no option but to increase their rates (this would be done only after the careful consideration of the economy and the market situation). The housing industry in the U.S has really 'cooled' off resulting in a slow growth of the economy. Well need to see how the investments are coming in this time to revive the economy, till then there is nothing to do but to wait and watch.

U.S Economy

For once in many days the U.S. economy does not look very gloomy (like its weather right now, as the winters are setting in!). As the economy seems to be making a little progress with 2.2% as its annual growth. Though the estimated growth rate was 1.6%. The parameters governing growth, among other things trade and inflation seems to be put the economy on a 'better off' position.

Hey but not everyone shares this view, including Mr. Bernanke, the Fed chairman (well it is not an easy business sitting on a hot seat!) he said that the underlying inflation seems to on the higher side, and I am sure he is planning steps to curtail it again.

Mr. Bernanke's main portfolio since taking up this hotseat seems to be only to supervise and control the rates!

Well on ths other side of the world things seems to be picking up well for China because of the some intelligent and not so risky investments it had undertaken as far as its 'Social Security Fund' was considered. Guess everything is a smooth ride for Chinese.

The Euro zone looks good and is all set to pick up growth of around2.4% by next year.

As far as home is concerned, after the China President's visit, there has been more fireworks, it looks like that there would be a spurt in the Trade growth between china and India, and is likely to increase to about 17.6billion.

Breaking the Barrier

This is one tech break through which has many of us nodding our head in unision. Thus on a serious note I start this article

Restriction and taking away one' s Freedom by force,are detested by many. In this modern world, where expression of thought prevails it would no longer be possible for countries to pose restrictions on people. Well one such revolutionising ideas is being done by Citizen lab which has come up with a venture called as Psiphon

Psiphon encourages people in restricted countries to use computers in the liberalised countries as proxy users. This is done through encrypted passwords. These would be hard to track because the 'hackvist' function in small groups and pass on information to close circles.

Guess it has become difficult and infact not possible to impose restriction on information and technology. After all it is a free world man!

The new flying machine

Guess it is enough of the Bears and Bulls story that I gave you last time. Well here is something interesting and that too in the air, if you guys are scratching your head then I will relieve you (I cant if you have a dandruff problem though!)Ok guys I am talking about the new flying Machine called as the SAX 4O, the good news is that it is a passenger aircraft and does not look like one. For one the designs are completely different and it is about 300 times more silent and fuel efficeint. Well the other good part is that this new aircraft is the brainchild of a cross section of scientists, academicians and pilots. Hence the result cannot be less than 'WOW'. If you guys are rushing to get your passports ready hold on, this new machine is into lot of detailing now and would be available for flying only in the midst of 2008. So hold your breath and age until this machine is ready to fly!

Market Watch-U.S

To add to your Monday morning blues are the not so good figures of the U.S Economy.

Ending speculation of who would occupy the house, the Democrats won the majority. But more than politics it is the Federal's decision which shapes the economy. As you people know, and as I had reiterated last week, if the trend continued, then U.S has to increase the rate to curtail the inflation and to cushion the downward trend in the economy. As a matter of common sense you and I know, that it is the onset of shopping season, and obviously the consumer index has shot up, helping the economy a little, well to give you exact figures the index has increased by about 9%. Coming to hard figures the Dow Industrial average is about 5.13 and that of S&P has increased by 5.27%, well not a very impressive figure!

Some of the positive sides of the economy are the increasing consumer price index, stability (as of now) as far as the politics is concerned and the major part being the decreas of the oil prices by about $1.58 per barrel bringing the price to $59.58 per barrel

Economy Watch-U.S. and India

Well folks U.S economy is not painting a very rosy picture. As the market went sliding down. If you ask me, there are lot of factors, which attributes to the fall. Well for one the Fed. have decided not to increase the rate at all, the crude oil has jumped to $1.26 (approx), which stood at $59.14. The next important attributes are politics, well you guessed it right, what with the congressional elections coming very near, nobody wants to place the risk and hence investments have been down.

Well I can almost hear you guys ask me if there are any good news as far as the U.S economy is concerned, well for one the unemployment rate is down and the rates are not going any further up. Well these two factors are interrelated, well as far as I can see the Fed. cant think of cutting down the rates, with unemployment level falling and increasing labour cost.

INDIA

As far as India is concerned, all is well and good. The Infrastructure (which I am most interested in) seems to have made a growth of about 9.9% from the 7%(approx.) growth achieved last year, well the biggest contributor towards this seems to be that of Petroleum and Cement. What is more the Highway commission is planning to rope in the best brains in the country through IIT and IIM to help the commission towards the infrastructure building activity (Am I glad!). As far as Foreign Trade is concerned, there has been a comprehensive coverage of product lines under the FTA (Foreign Trade Agreement). Well these are enough indicators to suggest that the economy is on its path to growth!

Market watch

This time its is market watch in the U.S guys, let us see how the ecnomy has fared the week that was! (last week). The U.S. economy does not seem to be really good much against the analysis done by market watchers last week. As far as the tech. side of the market goes, there seems to be a real down fall. The chip makers saw a downward trend, as the Asian market demand for the computer spareparts went sliding down (guess we people must really be picking up as far as self sustainencein the hardware side is considered). Ok let me give you some stats. the Dow Jones Industrial Average seems to have fallen down by 73.40 points. The S&P slid down to about 0.9% (not a very encouraging scene guys!)

As far as the economist are concerned they feel that the U.S economy can come to a balance when the consumer spending is reduced and there is more of Capital Spending by the industries. This actually could lead to a stop gap in the rising inflation and increase investment activity. As far as I can see if the trend continues and according to many analyst in the U.S are concerned the U.S. economy can slip into a recession in the second half of 2007. Guys let us wait and see how Ben is going to save the situation.

We need to see if the 'capitalist' heed to the advice of the market watchers and try and save the economy from possible recession!

Contd. Infrastructure: A comparitive study.

This is in continuation of my article on Infrastructure: A comparitive study between India and China.

Mr. Bern Grush is the founder of this new system called as' Skymeter' well this is a satellite based system which can manage traffic and might be a solution for the growing need for an organised infrastructure. This system is called as skymeter because it uses satellite like that of Galilieo and GPS. The methods adopted by the system are as follows: Skymeter helps in monitoring traffic with the help of which fines are levied for motorist driving during peak hours. Another is through Escalated parking method, i.e charging more for more hours of parking and last but not the least it hlps the insurance agency to offer better rates to safer drivers.

Guess some of the methods are already adopted by London, well I think some of this must be adopted by India, what with ISRO making leads with its innovative methods I am sure they can take help of some of the satellites to offer solutions to traffic and hence help to maintain the traffic and other infrastructure facilities in the country.